Researchers estimate that woman and African Americans will be hit hardest in the short-term, but white men may suffer larger consequences in the future.
Jan. 17, 2021
A new working paper from US National Bureau of Economic Research predicts disastrous long-term effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns.
The paper, authored by Francesco Bianchi from Duke University, Dongho Song of Johns Hopkins University, and Giada Bianchi of Harvard Medical School, examines the long-term consequences of the COVID-19 lockdowns.
The paper predicts an excess death of 890,000 Americans over the next 15 years due to the unemployment caused by COIVD lockdowns. “These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years,” the researches write.
The team estimates that woman and African Americans will be hit hardest in the short-term, but white men may suffer larger consequences in the future.
The team calls on government officials to consider the long-term impacts of lockdowns. “We interpret these results as a strong indication that policymakers should take into consideration the severe, long-run implications of such a large economic recession on people’s lives when deliberating on COVID-19 recovery and containment measures. Without any doubt, lockdowns save lives, but they also contribute to the decline in real activity that can have severe consequences on health.”
It’s a point that even Nate Silver recently made.
Click to read the full working paper.